Bordeaux 2016: arriving at a release price

In today’s blog we continue to explore some of the findings from our new in-depth study on Bordeaux, available for subscribers here. Having looked at the wines in which the trade has most confidence, we now turn our attention to Bordeaux 2016, and a key question: how might a château arrive at an appropriate en primeur release price?

Using average figures for 79 of the top Bordeaux crus, we explore two approaches. First, simplistically, we look at release prices of previous vintages, and apply the trade’s suggested decrease of 4% (see here for more) to the average 2015 release price. This is represented by the dotted line.

However, Wine Lister Founding Members were canvassed before having tasted the 2016 vintage, now considered to be excellent, and so the average suggested decrease of 4% on 2015 prices seems unrealistically low. Some châteaux have already released maintaining their 2015 price, which has been well received by the trade, while others have applied increases in euro terms, which in turn are amplified by the current exchange rate when converted into UK offer prices.

For each wine, it is also necessary to take into account the reception by the market of last year’s price, as well as this year’s relative quality.

Bordeaux 2016 arriving at release price

The second, more sophisticated approach, involves comparing the average Quality scores from the last eight vintages to the current market price for those vintages.

The closest quality rating to 2016 is 2015, but as this vintage is not yet delivered, the most appropriate vintage for comparison is 2010. As such, we have applied the quality to price ratio from 2010, in order to arrive at a derived future market price for the 2016 vintage on average, according to its current quality assessment.

The average price per bottle could be expected to reach €161 in the marketplace in due course.

Margins taken by the négociant and then importers tend to amount to around 25-30%, although this varies from wine to wine.

That would take us to around €117 per bottle at release. Then we apply a 10%-20% “discount” to the consumer for buying en primeur, before they receive the physical product. This suggests an average ex-château release price of €93 to €105 (see chart).

In general, this would mean that 2016s should be priced below current market prices for 2015, and well below 2010 market prices.

For further detail, or to enquire about price analysis on specific châteaux, please email team@wine-lister.com.

winelister May 15, 2017

Bordeaux / en primeur / Price / Quality / Quality Score / Release /

Trade’s confidence in Bordeaux grows

In last year’s inaugural Bordeaux study, Wine Lister recapped the region’s recent turbulence and concluded that Bordeaux was moving into a more positive phase. This year’s study – published this week, and available for subscribers here in English and French – continues that analysis, examining the region’s global positioning in the market before drilling down into its appellations and more than 100 of its top wines.

We’ll be revealing a few of the report’s findings over the coming weeks, beginning here with the trade’s view. Earlier in the year we surveyed our Founding Members (49 key fine wine trade players from across the globe), for insight into their confidence in Bordeaux’s individual wines. None got a perfect 10/10, but eight received 9/10, compared to only three last year (Latour, Margaux and Petrus), highlighting the trade’s surging confidence over the last 12 months:

Bordeaux_trade's view_confidence_9

While the majority of wines moved up one place from an 8/10 rating last year, Canon has greatly improved its position within the trade, leaping ahead three points from 6/10. Its 2015 vintage was declared by many to be the estate’s best: our US partner critic Antonio Galloni called it “one of the undisputed stars of the vintage” and awarded it an in-barrel score of 96-98/100. Canon 2016 has also been lauded by the critics, scoring 18.5/20 from our UK partner critic Jancis Robinson.

Bordeaux_trade's view_confidence_8

Meanwhile, 21% of the 108 wines surveyed received a confidence rating of 8/10, up from 18% of wines last year. Those whose standing has leapt significantly include Domaine de Chevalier, Haut-Bailly, Petit Mouton, Smith Haut Lafitte and Talbot, all up from 6/10 last year.

Visit Wine Lister’s Analysis page to read the full 48-page report, ‘2017 Bordeaux Market Study – A true return to form?’, available in both English and French.

winelister May 12, 2017

Bordeaux / Founding Members / France /

Bordeaux 2016 top wines by Quality score

Now that all our partner critics’ scores have been published, we have been able to feed them into Wine Lister’s bespoke algorithm to arrive at Quality scores for the Bordeaux 2016 vintage. The top 15 wines are shown below.

Wine Lister’s Quality score combines the ratings from our partner critics, three of the most respected critics in the world – Jancis Robinson, Antonio Galloni, and Bettane+Desseauve. A small weighting is also added for a wine’s ageing potential.

2016 Top Quality Scores 2

Ironically, the top wine of the vintage is Latour, not available to buy en primeur since the château withdrew from the system in 2012. The Pauillac first growth surged 34 positions up the table from last year, to 992 points for its 2016 Quality score.

Lafleur is just behind on 990, closely followed by Haut-Brion, Petrus and Vieux Château Certan. In fact, all the usual contenders make an appearance in the top 15, including the five first growths, their right bank equivalents such as Le Pin, Cheval Blanc, and Ausone, and Sauternes’ own first growth, Château d’Yquem.

Less obvious showings that are likely to represent better value include Calon Ségur, which improved a mammoth 51 places on last year, as well as Figeac and Pontet-Canet, in joint 15th position.

The top 40 2016 Quality scores will be listed in our upcoming Bordeaux market study, due for release later this week, and available to subscribers here. Alternatively, see the full ranking on the website.

winelister May 8, 2017

Bordeaux / critics / en primeur / Quality /

Bettane+Desseauve’s top Bordeaux 2016 scores

Wine Lister’s French partner critics, Bettane+Desseauve, released their Bordeaux 2016 en primeur scores today. Here is a first look at their top-scoring wines:

B+D top Bordeaux 2016 scores

Bettane+Desseauve awarded no potentially-perfect scores, but seven wines score 19-19.5 points. One is Château Ausone, which receives this rave review:

“Refinement of texture and fullness of body. An Ausone of immense depth, broader shouldered than usual but with the same majestic, finessed tannins. A giant.”

As for fellow Saint-Emilion premier grand cru classé A Cheval Blanc, Michel Bettane calls it “the greatest wine from the property, at least as a baby, for at least 20 years!”

All the left bank first growths score 19 or above, as do Petrus and Yquem. Otherwise the top scorers shown above are all first growth equivalents or second growths, apart from Calon-Ségur, a third growth which made a standout wine in 2016.

These scores complete Wine Lister’s partner critic triptych, allowing us to compute Quality scores for the Bordeaux 2016 wines. More detailed analysis will be published next week in this year’s Bordeaux study, which will be available to subscribers here.

winelister May 3, 2017

Bordeaux / critics / France / Quality /

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