Extract: Illustrative analysis of en primeur release prices
Amongst other findings, Part II of Wine Lister’s annual Bordeaux Study, ‘Reaching for the stars’, examines how en primeur pricing over recent vintages compares with quality levels and secondary market prices, to consider what success in Bordeaux’s 2022 campaign might look like.
Extracted from the report, the chart below provides an illustrative analysis of the 2022 en primeur release prices, based on the 110 wines1 covered in the study. As the bulk of releases are yet to enter the market, this is an entirely theoretical projection which, if applied on a case-by-case basis, could nevertheless be a useful benchmark.
An extract from Part II of Wine Lister’s 2023 Bordeaux Study, providing an illustrative analysis of the 2022 en primeur release prices
Wine Lister’s Quality score aggregates recently-published scores from our five Bordeaux partner critics – Antonio Galloni and Neal Martin for Vinous.com, Bettane+Desseauve, JancisRobinson.com, and Ella Lister for Le Figaro – plus a small weighting for their average drinking window. By comparing the Quality score of the 2022 vintage (the highest ever recorded – 927) with the average of the most similar vintages (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020), we obtain a quality-price ratio (QPR) of 6.66.
By dividing the Quality score of the 2022 vintage by this same QPR, we obtain a theoretical future market price of €160 for the 2022 vintage. To this price, we apply a discount of between 10% and 25%, corresponding to the minimum saving that consumers would expect to make versus buying the physical product two years later. This gives us an average release price of between €120 and €144 per bottle. By subtracting the average importers’ margin, we arrive at an average ex-négociant release price of €103 to €123 per bottle, i.e. -5% to +26% compared to the ex-négociant release price of 2021.
Out of the 48 releases covered by Wine Lister at the time of publishing, the average release price of the 2022 vintage is €71.3, compared to €62.6 in 2021, representing an increase of 14%.
1Some wines have been excluded due to a lack of regular en primeur releases or unreasonable prices.
Head to Wine Lister’s analysis page here to purchase the full study in English and French, while Pro Subscribers can access their copy for free here.
Key findings from this year’s first regional report
In anticipation of this year’s en primeur releases, Wine Lister has published Part 1 of its annual in-depth Bordeaux Study. In collaboration with Wine-Searcher, our market overview examines the region’s price performance and comparative popularity progression, and examines the wines that have seen the greatest increase in Wine Lister Quality, Brand, and Economic scores over the last year. Drawing upon valuable insight from 48 leading trade survey respondents, the study also identifies which properties have benefited from a rise in trade confidence over the past year, and explores the key benefits of the en primeur system.
Please see our key findings below, or download the study digest in English: Bordeaux Study Digest Part 1 – 2023 ENG or in French: Bordeaux Study Digest – 2023 FR.
As the year draws to a close, Wine Lister has published its 2022 Wine Leagues – the third of our annual reports celebrating the top-performing wines and producers within several categories over the past year. The Leagues reveal exciting developments in the world of fine wine, shining a light on consumer trends and estates on the rise, informed by an in-depth trade survey with key industry figures.
Please see some of our key findings below, or click here to download the full study.
The insider’s guide to fine wine trends, and the most compelling wines to watch
Wine Lister has released its second annual Wine Leagues, celebrating some of the top-performing wines and producers in today’s new and much-diversified fine wine era. Informed by an in-depth trade survey with leading industry figures, the report provides a 360° view of those regions, producers, and wines that have seen strides in quality, popularity, economic promise, and more in 2021.
Wine Lister’s annual in-depth survey sees our expert panel of 47 CEOs, MDs, and wine department heads share their insight on some of the fine wines to have on your radar, as we ask them:
“What are the most compelling wines and producers in the market today?”
Respondents singled out 188 wines and producers collectively, that span no less than 20 major regions. Within the list, our team identifies Bibi Graetz, Les Carmes Haut-Brion, Roberto Voerzio, Berthaut-Gerbet, and Fürst as wines to watch in the Old World, whilst calling out the New World wonders of Catena Zapata, Errazuriz, Pedro Parra, Rhys Vineyards, and Ridge Vineyards.
The report also includes rankings across:
- Biggest quality improvers, which show impressive movement from Italy (occupying five places in the list of the top 20 by Quality score progression), with Isole e Olena Chianti Classico leading the pack
- Best search rank movers, wherein Bordeaux represents eight of the top 20 wines whose popularity has increased most in terms of online searches (including Smith Haut Lafitte, Domaine de Chevalier, Figeac, and Léoville Poyferré)
- Burgundy superstars, focusing on popularity movements from the trade’s darling region – Arnoux-Lachaux features 10 times in the list of top 20 Burgundian wines whose online searches have increased the most over the last two years
- Wine Lister’s top-10 recommendations per Wine Lister Indicator; Hidden Gems, Value Picks, Buzz Brands, and Investment Staples in 2021
For the full analysis, download your free copy of Wine Lister’s 2021 Leagues here.
In an industry so defined by the art of its craft, the limit of crunching numbers often starts and ends for wineries in vat rooms and through lab panels. Wine Lister was founded on a guiding principle that while wine is a mystical liquid, that lives and breathes, that can transcend facts and figures and contribute mightily to the human experience, there are also plain truths to be found in data analytics for both consumers and producers alike. It is on this basis that we have built a strong following of website users – collectors eager to follow trends of the secondary market, and professionals keeping abreast of the latest analyses – but also liked-minded producer clients, who find value in Wine Lister’s benchmarking and bespoke analytics solutions.
Wine Lister’s benchmarking solution relies on 14 separate data points across three areas in the life of a fine wine – Quality, Brand, and Economics – as well as qualitative trade panel feedback (through an unparalleled network from founder Ella Lister’s years as a fine wine journalist) to assess a wine’s 360° positioning in the global marketplace. Measured annually, Wine Lister’s benchmarking service enables continuous measurement of a wine within its global competitive environment, and results in a reliable, tangible reflection of progress, and ideas for the strategy path forward. Indeed, long-time Wine Lister client Don Weaver of Harlan Estate recently reflected that “It was a natural growth [to work with Wine Lister], another coming of age of our business… As we’ve matured as a business and penetrated further out into the market, we realised that we needed analytics coming back to us, and we needed best practices in our business. We can’t do everything, so we looked at Wine Lister to help us see things through different eyes.”
Such analytical rigour has resulted in numerous actionable insights for our clients, from assisting one client in increasing its journalistic coverage in a foreign market where it was underrepresented compared to peers, to a pricing strategy update for another that balanced the producer’s own interests while maintaining market confidence.
Once findings are identified, clients of Wine Lister can choose to investigate further, by supplying some of their own internal data to our analysts, enabling us to conduct deep-dives on topics as wide-ranging as customer retention, social media and communications effectiveness, or individual release price positioning. The benchmarking analysis is thus a base on which Wine Lister builds long-term relationships with its clients, helping them take their wine to the next level.
For more information, see our producer services page, or contact us for a free 30-minute consultation.
As 2020 draws to a close, Wine Lister has compiled a report celebrating the top-performing wines and producers within a series of categories over the past year. Using our axes of Quality, Brand, and Economics, and the several factors that constitute these values, we have created seven leagues that paint a panoramic view of some of the world’s best wines, ranked within their areas of excellence.
Wine Lister’s 2020 Leagues include rankings of Quality Consistency (wines that show the smallest standard deviation between Quality scores over the last 20 vintages), and Biggest Movers (wines whose popularity has increased most in terms of online searches over the past year). Our team has also put together its top-10 wines per Wine Lister Indicator, revealing our recommendations for Hidden Gems, Value Picks, Buzz Brands, and Investment Staples.
We end the Leagues with a list of 21 Ultimate MUST BUYs for 2021, compiling a selection of MUST BUY highlights hand-picked by our fine wine experts, that offer an impressive addition to any fine wine portfolio in 2021. These are some of the picks that would feature in Wine Lister’s “fantasy cellar”.
Download your free copy of Wine Lister’s 2020 Leagues here.
Wine Lister’s recent in-depth Burgundy study considers the much-contended topic of the region’s rising prices, providing additional information for those planning on purchasing Burgundy 2019 en primeur over the coming months.
Below we examine the current distribution of prices of the 175 wines featured in the study, compared to the same wines two years ago. While 5% of wines were priced above £3,000 two years ago, a substantial 11% are today.
The graph above reveals a significant shift towards the higher end of the price scale, with multiple Burgundy wines previously priced between £1,900 and £2,700 now over £3,000. This comprises Comte Liger-Belair La Romanée, d’Auvenay’s Mazis-Chambertin and Bonnes-Mares, Domaine de la Romanée-Conti La Tâche, Jean-François Coche-Dury Corton-Charlemagne, and Leroy’s Richebourg, Romanée-Saint-Vivant, Clos de la Roche, Corton-Charlemagne, and Latricières-Chambertin.
Alongside the figures, feeling from Wine Lister’s recent Founding Member survey confirmed that Burgundy’s seemingly boundless prices are a concern, with over half of respondents voicing apprehensions on the topic. The most common sentiment is nonetheless that little will change for wines at the very top end, and that their prices will continue to climb, as demand continues to outweigh supply significantly. One specialist merchant in the Asian market informed us that they indeed foresee “Burgundy prices heading higher at the top end”, and that they “don’t see demand slowing despite the economic issues.”
The polarised prices illustrated in the graph are echoed by the trade, who cite a phenomenon of divergence between the top-end wines, and those at mid-range or entry-level. One respondent noted “an oversupply of generic and village Burgundy”, with another predicting that “when the smoke clears, all that remains will be Bourgogne Rouge/Blanc and the crown jewels, with no market in between”.
Despite the geopolitical context of the past two years, the buzz surrounding Burgundy remains strong, and competition will be hot for accessing the best wines of the 2019 vintage, particularly given its reduced production volume.
Visit the Analysis page to purchase Wine Lister’s in-depth 2020 Burgundy study, or download it using your Pro subscription here (available in both English and French).
Before the bulk of Burgundy en primeur 2019s are released onto the market, Wine Lister has published its second in-depth Burgundy study.
Below we explore the complex relationship between the region’s price performance and its popularity growth over the past two years, informing your investment decisions over the coming months.
The two-year price performance of a basket of 175 Burgundy wines (the same wines featured in our previous study on the region in 2018), based on the last 30 vintages. Price data partner: Wine Owners.
As shown in the chart above, Chambolle and its surrounding sites lead in the price performance of Burgundy Grand Crus, followed by wines hailing from its northerly neighbour, Morey-Saint-Denis. The notorious sub-set of Grand Crus from around Vosne – home of legendary Richebourg, La Tâche, Echezeaux, and Romanée-Conti – has seen slower price performance, which is matched with lower popularity growth (see below).
The two-year popularity growth of each Burgundy subset. Popularity data partner: Wine-Searcher.
Though Chambolle and its surrounding Grand Crus have excelled in two-year price growth, consumer interest in the wines of this subset increased the least. Following similarly this opposing relationship between the two data sets, Nuits-Saint-Georges / Vosne Premiers Crus and Village wines gained the most popularity over the last two years by a large margin, while the subset’s price performance trails behind in last place.
A growing interest in lower-priced wines from Burgundy is further explored through trends identified by key members of the international fine wine trade in Wine Lister’s report. Producers such as Arnoux-Lachaux and Georges Mugneret-Gibourg are well worth looking out for when buying Burgundy en primeur for drinking in several years’ time.
Visit the Analysis page to purchase Wine Lister’s in-depth 2020 Burgundy study, or download it using your Pro subscription here (available in both English and French).
Last week we introduced Wine Lister’s new toy, a dynamic guide to the ultimate wines any fine wine lover should consider for their cellar – WL MUST BUY. While the full list is approximately 1,800 recommendations strong, Wine Lister provides some useful segments to help cut into all that data, aside from the usual criteria that can be found in our advanced search function (region, price, colour, score etc).
Wine Lister Indicators are designed to provide suggestions for your specific buying purpose, whether it be to discover something new (Hidden Gems), impress at a dinner party (Buzz Brands), drink well without breaking the bank (Value Picks), or add to your investment portfolio (Investment Staples).
MUST BUYs and Indicators together provide a ready-made source list of the best wines to meet your needs. Below we look at the combination of our MUST BUY algorithm with Investment Staples.
Investment Staples are wines above a certain price, that are long-lived (but not too old), have proven wine price performance or represent good value compared to their peers, and are relatively stable and liquid, with recognition from our network of global fine wine trade members.
There are 18 MUST BUY Investment Staples that score 97 WL points or above. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Bordeaux represents almost half of these, with eight MUST BUYs, including two first growths (2016 Mouton, and 2016 Lafite), and 1975 Petrus.
These eight Bordeaux have an average price of £511 per bottle, or just under an eighth of the average price of the three Burgundies to qualify as MUST BUY Investment Staples. However, as investments, some of them may require patience – the prices of those from 2016 have yet to increase any significant amount. By contrast, DRC’s La Tâche 2005, Richebourg 2005, and Comte Liger-Belair La Romanée 2012 are testament to Burgundy’s impressive upward price trajectory, having already achieved three-year CAGR (compound annual growth rates) of 21.8%, 23.4%, and 33.1% respectively.
Outside of Bordeaux and Burgundy, Italy holds court with MUST BUY Investment staples from Bartolo Mascarello, and the indomitable Soldera among others.
You can see the full list of MUST BUY Investment Staples here, or check out some other MUST BUY lists, such as MUST BUY Hidden Gems, or MUST BUY Value Picks.
Don’t forget that the MUST BUY list changes weekly. Revisit MUST BUY Investment Staples again next week to see new entries.
As en primeur 2018 picks up pace, we consider the 10 Bordeaux wines that any fine wine collector should acquire for their collection. These are based on the results of Wine Lister’s latest Founding Member survey, gathering the views of over 50 key players in the global fine wine trade.
You can download this slide here: 10 must have Bordeaux wines for your collection