Extract: Illustrative analysis of en primeur release prices
Amongst other findings, Part II of Wine Lister’s annual Bordeaux Study, ‘Reaching for the stars’, examines how en primeur pricing over recent vintages compares with quality levels and secondary market prices, to consider what success in Bordeaux’s 2022 campaign might look like.
Extracted from the report, the chart below provides an illustrative analysis of the 2022 en primeur release prices, based on the 110 wines1 covered in the study. As the bulk of releases are yet to enter the market, this is an entirely theoretical projection which, if applied on a case-by-case basis, could nevertheless be a useful benchmark.
An extract from Part II of Wine Lister’s 2023 Bordeaux Study, providing an illustrative analysis of the 2022 en primeur release prices
Wine Lister’s Quality score aggregates recently-published scores from our five Bordeaux partner critics – Antonio Galloni and Neal Martin for Vinous.com, Bettane+Desseauve, JancisRobinson.com, and Ella Lister for Le Figaro – plus a small weighting for their average drinking window. By comparing the Quality score of the 2022 vintage (the highest ever recorded – 927) with the average of the most similar vintages (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020), we obtain a quality-price ratio (QPR) of 6.66.
By dividing the Quality score of the 2022 vintage by this same QPR, we obtain a theoretical future market price of €160 for the 2022 vintage. To this price, we apply a discount of between 10% and 25%, corresponding to the minimum saving that consumers would expect to make versus buying the physical product two years later. This gives us an average release price of between €120 and €144 per bottle. By subtracting the average importers’ margin, we arrive at an average ex-négociant release price of €103 to €123 per bottle, i.e. -5% to +26% compared to the ex-négociant release price of 2021.
Out of the 48 releases covered by Wine Lister at the time of publishing, the average release price of the 2022 vintage is €71.3, compared to €62.6 in 2021, representing an increase of 14%.
1Some wines have been excluded due to a lack of regular en primeur releases or unreasonable prices.
Head to Wine Lister’s analysis page here to purchase the full study in English and French, while Pro Subscribers can access their copy for free here.
While the Bordeaux 2022 en primeur campaign is yet to kick off in full swing – with just a handful of key releases entering the market over the past three weeks – Wine Lister’s partner critics’ scores are now in (Antonio Galloni and Neal Martin from Vinous, Jancis Robinson, Bettane+Desseauve, and Le Figaro Vin) informing our overarching 100-point Wine Lister score. The WL score is the average score of our five partner critics, normalised to take into account each critic’s scale and scoring habits.
In our latest blog, we examine the wines that gain the top Wine Lister scores in 2022 – a vintage that, despite extreme weather conditions, is projected to be one of the best from this century (recap Ella Lister’s vintage report here).
The top 30 wines of the vintage are shown below, with all estates in this ranking boasting scores of 96 or above. Scores are shown to one decimal place to enable a detailed ranking within the top scorers.
The 30 wines with the highest WL scores, including their points increase versus 2021
Reflecting trade and press sentiment regarding the exceptional quality of the 2022s, wines across the board have generally seen their WL scores increase on last year, and in some cases, significantly. This year, 64 wines achieve WL scores of 95 and over, more than double the number in 2021 (29). While the estates that made up our top 30 last year had an average score of 95.2, this year’s top 30 average 96.8 points.
A glaring observation: only red wines have scored above 96 in 2022 – the vintage having been kinder to Merlots and Cabernets than to their white counterparts, which struggled to maintain acidity in the heat. Only six whites – predominantly sweet wines from Sauternes and Barsac – scored just outside the examined range, with WL scores of around 95. These include – in descending order – Climens, Suduiraut, Doisy-Daëne L’Extravagant de Doisy (last year’s top-scoring wine, with 97 points in 2021), Rayne-Vigneau, La Mission Haut-Brion Blanc (the only dry white), and Fargues.
Turning to reds, Cheval Blanc stands at the top of the podium (up 3 points on 2021), followed by Léoville Las Cases (up 3.4 points), Latour (up 2.9 points), Vieux Château Certan (up 2 points), Mouton-Rothschild (up 3.2 points), and Lafite Rothschild (up 2 points), which all boast rounded scores of 98. They are closely tailed by La Conseillante (up 2.1 points), Petrus (up 2.7 points), and Figeac (up 2.6 points), amongst others.
The biggest climbers in the top 30 this year were Léoville Las Cases, with a WL score increase of 3.4 since the 2021, followed by Trotanoy with 3.3, Mouton-Rothschild with 3.2, La Mission Haut-Brion and Beau-Séjour Bécot with 3.1 points. On average, these 30 estates saw an increase of 2.4 points compared to 2021.
Right Bank estates take up the majority of places in this year’s top-30 list (56% compared to 45% in 2021). This is mainly thanks to 10 Saint-Émilion properties and their limestone terroirs featuring in the top 30 – exactly one third – versus 24% last year, whereas Pomerol’s representation is similar year-on-year (23% versus 21%). Other appellations featuring ore strongly in the top 30 are Pauillac (17% up from 14%), and Margaux and Saint-Estèphe (both 7% up from 3%), while Pessac-Léognan and Saint-Julien have seen their listings reduce (10% versus 17%; 5% versus 7%, respectively).
Key findings from this year’s first regional report
In anticipation of this year’s en primeur releases, Wine Lister has published Part 1 of its annual in-depth Bordeaux Study. In collaboration with Wine-Searcher, our market overview examines the region’s price performance and comparative popularity progression, and examines the wines that have seen the greatest increase in Wine Lister Quality, Brand, and Economic scores over the last year. Drawing upon valuable insight from 48 leading trade survey respondents, the study also identifies which properties have benefited from a rise in trade confidence over the past year, and explores the key benefits of the en primeur system.
Please see our key findings below, or download the study digest in English: Bordeaux Study Digest Part 1 – 2023 ENG or in French: Bordeaux Study Digest – 2023 FR.
As the year draws to a close, Wine Lister has published its 2022 Wine Leagues – the third of our annual reports celebrating the top-performing wines and producers within several categories over the past year. The Leagues reveal exciting developments in the world of fine wine, shining a light on consumer trends and estates on the rise, informed by an in-depth trade survey with key industry figures.
Please see some of our key findings below, or click here to download the full study.
The Place de Bordeaux has welcomed dozens of new wines through its distribution system this year, with new releases expected from Champagnes Barons de Rothschild, Biserno, and Parusso, alongside old favourites such as Caiarossa, Catena Zapata, and Penfolds, among others. As the campaign kicks off, we take a closer look at the first week of entries.
Dawn at Seña vineyard. The Wine Lister team tasted Seña 2020 with the Viñedo Chadwick and Seña team via Zoom last month
Inaugurating this year’s campaign on Thursday 1st September was an offering from Seña, whose 2020 vintage was released at £85.83 per bottle (in-bond). Tasting with Wine Lister on Zoom, the Seña-Chadwick team explained that although 2020 was an unusually warm year in Chile, a wide diurnal range in the vineyards (thanks to its 230 – 460m altitude) made for a long ripening season, allowing the grapes to develop intensity of flavour whilst retaining freshness. The Wine Lister team describes the latest release as opulent, with a complex nose of black fruit, plum and spice; on the palate, its berry intensity is complemented by notes of cigar box and grilled meat.
Quintessa 2019 followed swiftly, and has so far been offered in the UK for £180 per bottle (in-bond). Antonio Galloni (Vinous) awards Quintessa 2019 94 points, calling it “one of the best wines I have tasted here in some time”. Another offering from Rutherford in the Napa Valley, Inglenook Rubicon 2019 was released on Friday 2nd September at £143 per bottle (in-bond).
Released on Monday 5th September, Opus One 2019 entered the market at £252 per bottle (in-bond), with the latest vintage so far receiving acclaim from critics including Antonio Galloni (Vinous), who awards 97 points and writes that “it has all the classicism that is such an Opus One signature” and praises its “sublime finish”. Opus One is one of the top 15 best fine wine brands in the world, according to Wine Lister’s Brand score (as part of our Pro scoring system, see more here) – with high quality in 2020 further cementing this reputation.
Tuesday 6th September saw the latest release from Masseto, whose 2019 vintage (released at £440 per bottle in-bond) was the first to be made entirely in the estate’s new dedicated state-of-the-art winery, as well as the first with 10% Cabernet Franc added to an historically 100% Merlot composition. These changes appear to have yielded positive results, with Vinous’ Antonio Galloni describing Masseto 2020 as “fabulous”, adding that it is “Silky, gracious, and super-refined”.
Vin de Constance 2019 was released on Tuesday 6th September
Following suit on Tuesday 6th September, Vin de Constance 2019 entered the market at £45 per 500ml bottle (in-bond). Achieving its highest Wine Lister score since the 2012 vintage (96), the 2019 is awarded 97 points from Vinous’ Neal Martin, who calls it a “superb Vin de Constance […] a step closer to what you might confusingly call a non-sweet dessert wine” – high praise indeed.
Wednesday 7th September saw the release of the 25th vintage of Almaviva – a warm and dry year, the 2020 harvest arrived almost three weeks earlier than usual. Almaviva 2020 entered the market at £120 per bottle (in-bond).
On Thursday 8th September, Château d’Yquem released the last remaining half bottles of the 2016 vintage ex-château at £165 per bottle (in-bond). The vintage achieved a Wine Lister score of 96, with Neal Martin (Vinous) tasting in February this year, awarding 95 points and noting it “has gained a bit more complexity in recent years”. Solaia 2019 was released on the same morning, with a likely UK onward selling price of £218 per bottle. Antonio Galloni (Vinous) sings its praises, giving 97 points and describing it as “the sort of wine I would like to spend a whole evening with”.
Viñedo Chadwick 2020 was also released on Thursday morning, so far being offered in the UK at around £232 per bottle (in-bond). This particular vintage is made from 100% Cabernet Sauvignon (Petit-Verdot is usually included in the blend). Tasting with the Seña-Chadwick team on Zoom, Wine Lister describes it as a complex and opulent offering, exhibiting great energy, freshness, and intensity.
Friday 9th September saw the release of L’Aventure Estate Cuvée 2020 at a recommended UK onward selling price of £83 per bottle (in-bond). Wine Lister CEO Ella Lister (tasting on behalf of Le Figaro Vin) awards the 2020 95 points, describing it as “Pure and upfront on the nose, with dark fruit, slate, and cinnamon”. It should be noted that the next release of l’Aventure Estate Cuvée will be in September 2024, as the property is skipping a year in order to age the 2021 longer.
Also released this week were Cloudburst Chardonnay 2020, Cloudburst Cabernet Sauvignon 2019, Beaucastel Hommage à Jacques Perrin 2020, Opus One Overture 2019, Massetino 2020, Rieussec 2020, and R de Rieussec 2021. Upcoming releases over the next week are likely to include Penfolds Bin 169 2019, Cheval des Andes 2019, Bibi Graetz Colore 2020 & Testamatta 2020, Latour 2010, Petrolo Galatrona 2020, Catena Zapata Nicolas 2019, and Beaulieu Vineyard Georges de Latour 2019.
Despite the challenges brought throughout the growing season of the 2021 vintage, Bordeaux’s dry whites shone in terms of quality. To guide those still considering their 2021 Bordeaux en primeur purchases, Wine Lister presents some of the best choices in Bordeaux whites from the vintage, at five different price points. (All prices are quoted in-bond per bottle when purchasing by the case).
Under £25 – Olivier Blanc
The 2021 vintage from Château Oliver’s white was described by Jancis Robinson as “Racy and lively” with a “good balance of interesting fruit and zest”. Ella Lister (for Le Figaro) gave Olivier 2021 a score of 92-93, praising its balance and describing it as an “ethereal and harmonious blend of Sauvignon and Sémillon”. Olivier 2021 can be purchased from Millésima for £22.70.
Under £40 – Malartic-Lagravière Blanc
Awarding 90-92 points, Antonio Galloni (Vinous) describes the latest vintage of Malartic-Lagravière as “Bright and sculpted”, with “plenty to offer”. Jancis Robinson deems it “Already attractive” and “Impressively persistent”. Malartic-Lagravière Blanc appears on Wine Lister’s list of value picks in Part II of our 2022 Bordeaux Study, indicating a strong quality-to-price ratio. Elsewhere in the study, Wine Lister found that Malartic-Lagravière is enjoying a robust short-term (six-month) price performance of just under 14% – placing it in the top 15 short-term price performances. Malartic-Lagravière 2021 can be bought from Justerini & Brooks for £39.42.
Under £75 – Domaine de Chevalier Blanc
The 2021 vintage from Domaine de Chevalier has received acclaim from the critics, with Neal Martin (Vinous) awarding its white 95-97 points and declaring it “one of the best Domaine de Chevalier whites that [he has] tasted in 20-plus years”. Jancis Robinson confers a score of 17+ and writes that it “should be a real long-distance runner”. Domaine de Chevalier Blanc 2021 can be bought from Farr Vintners for £72.17.
Under £110 – Cos d’Estournel Blanc
The only wine among the five selected here not to hail from Pessac-Léognan, Cos d’Estournel’s Blanc 2021 receives its joint-highest Wine Lister score in over 15 years. Indeed, Antonio awards it 93-95 points, above last year’s vintage (91-93), and writes that it is “one of the finest vintages I can remember tasting”. He praises its “sheer palate presence”, a sentiment Ella echoes as she describes Cos d’Estournel Blanc 2021 as “delectable, lingering in the mouth”. Cos d’Estournel Blanc 2021 can be purchased from Berry Bros. & Rudd for £105.
Under £650 – Haut-Brion Blanc
One of the most noteworthy releases of the 2021 Bordeaux en primeur campaign is the latest white from Haut-Brion. In such a challenging vintage, Haut-Brion Blanc 2021 seriously impresses as it sees the greatest increase in Quality from 2020 to 2021 – as explored in Part II of Wine Lister’s 2022 Bordeaux Study. The 2021 vintage also achieves the wine’s highest ever potential en primeur score from Vinous as Neal awards it 96-98 points. Haut-Brion Blanc 2021 can be purchased from Cru World Wine for £640.
Bordeaux en primeur 2021 had its share of surprises – and challenges – when it came to pricing. Wine Lister examines some of the best offerings from the 2021 vintage at five different price points, to inform those still considering their en primeur purchases this year. (All prices are quoted in-bond per bottle when purchasing by the case).
Under £15 – Mauvesin Barton
Owned by the Barton family – whose portfolio also includes Léoville Barton and Langoa Barton – the 2021 vintage from the Mauvesin Barton estate has been described as “well-balanced and surfeit with freshness” by Neal Martin (Vinous). To compensate for the extensive frosts of 2021, the vintage’s blend contains more Cabernet than usual. It is the first vintage to be made in Mauvesin Barton’s new winery, which is equipped with smaller vats for greater precision, and it shows. This offering from Moulis-en-Médoc can be purchased for £10.92 per bottle from Justerini & Brooks.
Under £50 – La Gaffelière
One of the star releases of the 2021 en primeur campaign, La Gaffelière is on a continuous upward trajectory. The 2021 vintage received the Saint-Émilion estate’s joint-highest ever Wine Lister score, and a score of 95-97 from Antonio Galloni (Vinous). This is a very strong showing from the estate, which features in Part II of Wine Lister’s 2022 Bordeaux Study as a quality outperformer – meaning that its 2021 vintage has outpaced its average quality. La Gaffelière 2021 can be purchased from Millésima for £48 per bottle.
Under £75 – Rauzan-Ségla
Nicolas Audebert, Managing Director at Rauzan-Ségla and Canon, told the Wine Lister team that 2021 was “the most stressful and exhausting vintage ever”. Strong praise from critics is a testament to the hard work carried out by the estate’s team – including the highest amount of intra-parcel zoning ever done in the vineyard, identifying the best lots. Antonio and Neal rated it 94-97 and 94-96 respectively, while James Lawther (for JancisRobinson.com) describes it as “Very well-judged and very Margaux”. Rauzan-Ségla 2021 can be bought from Farr Vintners for £60 per bottle.
Under £125 – Montrose
Montrose 2021 marks the first year of organic conversion at the estate. In such a challenging vintage, the Saint-Estèphe estate’s Technical Director, Vincent Decup, told Wine Lister, “We have never done so much [in the vineyard]”. It receives a score of 94-96 from Ella Lister (for Le Figaro Vin), who notes its “very long and increasingly delicate finish”. Montrose 2021 can be purchased from Berry Bros. & Rudd for £113.50 per bottle.
Under £400 – Cheval Blanc
Following last year’s en primeur success, Cheval Blanc is once again a standout release in 2021. The estate’s Technical Director, Pierre-Olivier Clouet, remarked to the Wine Lister team that “the 2021 vintage was like cooking at low temperature after six years of cooking on a high heat”, and “given the choice, every Cheval Blanc team member would choose a case of 2021 for their cellars over 2020”. Indeed, the 2021 vintage received even more resoundingly positive reviews from critics than last year. Antonio awards it his joint-top score in 2021 (96-98) and proclaims it “one of the wines of the vintage… Stunning”. The Saint-Émilion star is available from IG Wines for £395 per bottle.
Amongst other findings, Part II of Wine Lister’s annual Bordeaux Study, ‘Walking the tightrope’, explores the outperformers of the latest vintage – the top 15 wines whose Wine Lister Quality score (part of our Pro rating system) in 2021 most exceeded their wine-level average. The wine-level average is calculated based on a mean Quality score over the last five vintages, to reveal more recent trends. Seven of this year’s outperformers were also featured in the 2020 list, indicating that these wines continue to build long-term quality in 2021.
Quality score – outperformers in 2021 (as featured in Part II of our 2022 Bordeaux Study)
Four Margaux wines feature in the 2021 outperformers chart, with Durfort-Vivens this year taking the top spot from Ferrière. Receiving a score of 92-94 from Ella Lister (for Le Figaro Vin), she describes it as “Effervescent with energy and life […] with an impressive density, and a generous future ahead of it.”
New additions to the outperformers chart this year, Marquis d’Alesme and Marquis de Terme rank in 11thand 13th place respectively. As well as appearing in our list of Bordeaux 2021 Value Picks (wines with the best quality-to-price ratios), the latter earns the status as the Bordeaux red with the biggest increase in 2021 Quality score compared to the 2020 vintage (also explored in Part II). Antonio Galloni for Vinous awards Marquis de Terme 2021 its highest ever potential score from the critic platform, 93-95, calling it “inky, vibrant, and super-expressive”.
La Lagune returns to the 2021 chart in fourth place, down from third in last year’s study. James Lawther (JancisRobinson.com) calls the 2021 “pure and precise”. The estate has been certified organic since the 2016 vintage and is currently working towards biodynamic certification.
Pauillac also sees four wines on this year’s outperformers chart, with Grand-Puy-Ducasse, Haut-Bages Libéral, Haut-Batailley, and Pédesclaux showing strong improvements in Quality score in 2021. Awarding a score of 92-94, Antonio Galloni notes that Grand-Puy-Ducasse “has made important strides of late”, given the increased investment under the direction of Anne Le Naour, while Pédesclaux has also seen significant investments from proprietor Jacky Lorenzetti.
Saint-Emilion brings three wines to the 2021 outperformers chart, with Fombrauge entering the outperformers chart in 10th place, and La Dominique overtaking La Lagune to occupy the third spot. La Gaffelière has also increased its standing on the chart, having climbed six places from 11th place last year, and achieving its highest ever Wine Lister Quality score in 2021.
Les Carmes Haut-Brion continues its upward trajectory in 2021, receiving a score of 17++ by James Lawther (the highest score given by the JancisRobinson.com team since the 2015 vintage), and gaining Ella Lister’s top score for the vintage (96-99 points). Larrivet Haut-Brion enters the outperformers chart in ninth place, with the estate deciding not to include any Merlot in their 2021 blend – a first in Bordeaux.
Also appearing on our list of Value Picks for the 2021 vintage, Les Ormes de Pez rounds off the list of outperformers, having received a score of 91-93 from Neal Martin (Vinous), who calls it “A stylish Saint-Estèphe”.
For the full list of Wine Lister’s top 20 Value Picks for Bordeaux, as well as further analyses of the region’s performance on Quality, search data, auction activity, and short-term price performance, download Part II of Wine Lister’s 2022 Bordeaux study here.
Wine-Searcher is the world’s largest wine and spirits search engine, handling 250 million searches from around the world each year. This year, as part of Wine Lister’s annual Bordeaux study (Part II), we include data from Wine-Searcher exploring compound annual growth (CAGR) by Bordeaux appellation, average offers on Wine-Searcher by appellation, vintage, and geography, and average monthly searches by appellation and search location.
“There have been some subtle (and not-so-subtle) changes over the past year”, observes Wine-Searcher’s Editor, Don Kavanagh. “While Bordeaux still dominates both search and offer numbers, interest appears to have fallen slightly in relative terms.”
Bordeaux’s offer count on Wine-Searcher
Though Bordeaux is still the major player on the world stage, with the highest total share of search activity of all major wine regions, its growth in rate of search is showing signs of being outpaced.
Searches for all wines over the past 12 months increased from 188 million to 205 million, slightly faster than searches for Bordeaux wines (up by 3 million to 39 million) during the same period.
Similarly, Bordeaux is not benefitting from the overall growth in offers on Wine-Searcher, which have risen from 6.8 million to 6.9 million over the last 12 months. Indeed, Bordeaux offers have shrunk slightly, from 791,000 to 786,000. Not all Bordeaux appellations were equally affected (see graph below).
Average offer count per wine by appellation and merchant location, January – April 2022
During the first four months of 2022, there was a 6.7% contraction in offers from Europe (excluding the UK), with an even steeper reduction in offers from the UK and Asia, at 11.5% and 12.1% respectively, when compared with the same period in 2021. The USA’s number of monthly searches, as explored above, map neatly onto its increase in monthly offers per appellation (6.3% once again).
Search count by Bordeaux appellation and geographical location on Wine-Searcher
Search activity varied by geographical location in the period from January to April 2022, in comparison with the same period in 2021. While searches for Bordeaux appellations from the UK, Asia, and Europe (excluding the UK) decreased, the USA saw a 6.3% increase in search activity.
Average search count per wine by appellation and user location in 2022 (January – April)
Bordeaux’s price growth by appellation on Wine-Searcher
There are causes for optimism; growth with respect to global average prices (measured as a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR) in the period 2017-2022 has continued. The leader of the pack among Bordeaux appellations in this regard is Pomerol, reaching 6.1%. Even the lowest CAGR, exhibited by Saint-Emilion and Margaux, is 4.3%.
The year 2020-2021 remains an exception; compound annual growth rates jumped by 10% across all the examined appellations in that year.
Compound annual growth by appellation, 2017 – 2022
The strength of the region’s compound annual growth rate is perhaps linked to the sharp decline in overall offer activity beginning in 2019, as compared with the longer-term average. While overall offer activity began to decrease, the proportion of offers between each appellation remained relatively stable in the period 2014-2020.
To view the full Wine-Searcher insert in Wine Lister’s annual Bordeaux study, and uncover more of Wine Lister’s analysis of the Bordeaux’s standing in 2022 – including quality scores, short-term price performance, and auction activity, as well as the topics discussed above – download the full report here.
Following the conclusion of this year’s Bordeaux en primeur campaign, Wine Lister has published Part II of its annual in-depth Bordeaux Study. The study provides invaluable insights into search activity, Quality scores, short-term price performance, and auction volumes, as well as revealing the best-performing wines in 2021.
Please see some of our key findings below:
You can download the study digest here. The full report can be purchased in French and in English on our Analysis page, while Pro subscribers can access their free copy here. See our previous posts to catch up on some of the key releases from the 2021 en primeur campaign.